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Coronavirus in Oregon: Health experts predict continued decline in hospitalizations - oregonlive.com

Coronavirus in Oregon: Health experts predict continued decline in hospitalizations - oregonlive.com

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COVID-19 hospitalizations will likely continue to decline because there aren’t enough Oregonians left who are susceptible to the disease to cause a massive surge, according to a pandemic forecaster with Oregon Health & Science University.

OHSU researcher Peter Graven said in a statement that hospitalizations likely won’t surge, though the current downward trend could stall as people gather for Thanksgiving. Graven cautioned against comparing the current uptick in hospitalizations happening in Europe to what could happen in Oregon.

“The delta variant burned like a wildfire in Oregon compared to Europe at that time,” Graven said. “In Oregon, we’ve already infected a large share of the unvaccinated population.”

But that doesn’t mean Oregon can let down its guard quite yet.

“While we don’t have as large a group of susceptible people,” Graven said, “we could still increase hospital case levels if we back off precautions too quickly.”

Oregon health officials announced 862 new coronavirus cases Wednesday and 50 deaths connected to COVID-19.

The Oregon Health Authority reported nearly 5,700 new cases in the week ending Sunday, just under 2.5% fewer cases than the week prior. At 806 new cases a day, the daily average is now nearly three times smaller than what it was during the pandemic peak in late August, early September.

October has been the deadliest month for breakthrough cases -- when people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 get infected anyway. More than one in four of Oregon’s COVID-19 deaths that month had been fully vaccinated, according to a new state report published Wednesday.

Health officials said they won’t be releasing new COVID-19 case, hospitalization or death data until Monday, Nov. 29, citing the holidays.

Where the new cases are by county: Baker (10), Benton (12), Clackamas (71), Clatsop (11), Columbia (14), Coos (13), Crook (7), Curry (7), Deschutes (88), Douglas (37), Harney (1), Hood River (8), Jackson (67), Jefferson (2), Josephine (12), Klamath (21), Lane (67), Lincoln (15), Linn (51), Malheur (7), Marion (68), Morrow (2), Multnomah (93), Polk (23), Tillamook (4), Umatilla (15), Union (5), Wallowa (5), Wasco (3), Washington (94) and Yamhill (29).

Who died: Oregon’s 5,067th death is a 64-year-old Deschutes County man who tested positive Sept. 20 and died Sept. 28 at his residence.

The 5,068th death is an 82-year-old Multnomah County man who tested positive Sept. 19 and died Sept. 21 at his residence.

Oregon’s 5,069th death is a 78-year-old Deschutes County woman who tested positive Aug. 18 and died Sept. 30 at her residence.

The 5,070th death is a 61-year-old Multnomah County woman who tested positive Sept. 15 and died Sept. 27 at PeaceHealth Sacred Heart Medical Center at Riverbend.

Oregon’s 5,071st death is a 49-year-old Multnomah County man who tested positive Sept. 16 and died Sept. 26 at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.

The 5,072nd death is a 58-year-old Deschutes County man who tested positive Sept. 21 and died Sept. 26 at St. Charles Bend.

Oregon’s 5,073rd death is an 86-year-old Washington County woman who tested positive Sept. 26 and died Sept. 26 at her residence.

The 5,074th death is a 69-year-old Linn County man who tested positive Sept. 13 and died Sept. 27 at Samaritan Albany General Hospital.

Oregon’s 5,075th death is a 68-year-old Linn County woman who tested positive Sept. 28 and died Sept. 27 at her residence.

The 5,076th death is a 58-year-old Columbia County woman who tested positive Sept. 10 and died Sept. 29 at Kaiser Westside Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,077th death is a 95-year-old Marion County man who tested positive Sept. 16 and died Sept. 29 at his residence.

The 5,078th death is a 52-year-old Harney County man who tested positive Sept. 9 and died Sept. 30 at St Charles Bend.

Oregon’s 5,079th death is an 87-year-old Clackamas County woman who tested positive Sept. 11 and died Sept. 30 at her residence.

The 5,080th death is a 73-year-old Deschutes County woman who tested positive Sept. 12 and died Oct. 1 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,081st death is an 87-year-old Clackamas County woman who tested positive Sept. 28 and died Oct. 1 at Kaiser Sunnyside Medical Center.

The 5,082nd death is an 83-year-old Coos County woman who tested positive Sept. 20 and died Oct. 1 at PeaceHealth Sacred Heart Medical Center at Riverbend.

Oregon’s 5,083rd death is a 92-year-old Marion County man who tested positive Sept. 20 and died Oct. 1 at his residence.

The 5,084th death is a 97-year-old Lane County woman who tested positive July 12 and died Oct. 2 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,085th death is a 70-year-old Clackamas County woman who tested positive March 21 and died Oct. 2 at her residence.

The 5,086th death is a 71-year-old Lane County man who tested positive Aug. 28 and died Oct. 2 at Roseburg VA Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,087th death is a 78-year-old Lane County woman who tested positive Aug. 27 and died Oct. 3 at her residence.

The 5,088th death is a 67-year-old Washington County man who tested positive Sept. 21 and died Oct. 3 at Kaiser Westside Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,089th death is a 93-year-old Deschutes County man who tested positive Sept. 12 and died Oct. 3 at his residence.

The 5,090th death is a 62-year-old Washington County woman who tested positive Sept. 24 and died Oct. 4 at Kaiser Westside Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,091st death is a 95-year-old Washington County woman who tested positive Sept. 7 and died Oct. 13 at Legacy Meridian Park Medical Center.

The 5,092nd death is a 100-year-old Multnomah County woman who tested positive Sept. 10 and died Oct. 4 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,093rd death is a 94-year-old Linn County woman who tested positive Sept. 17 and died Oct. 8 at her residence.

The 5,094th death is a 50-year-old Marion County woman who died Sept. 4 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,095th death is a 65-year-old Clackamas County man who died Nov. 24 at his residence.

The 5,096th death is a 24-year-old Deschutes County man who tested positive Oct. 5 and died Oct. 7 at St. Charles Bend.

Oregon’s 5,097th death is an 83-year-old Lincoln County man who died Aug. 28 at his residence.

The 5,098th death is a 73-year-old Curry County woman who died Aug. 31 at Curry General Hospital.

Oregon’s 5,099th death is a 78-year-old Deschutes County man who died Sept. 16 at his residence.

The 5,100th death is an 88-year-old Yamhill County man who died Aug. 17 at his residence.

Oregon’s 5,101st death is an 86-year-old Douglas County woman who tested positive Sept. 26 and died Nov. 6 at her residence.

The 5,102nd death is a 59-year-old Coos County woman who tested positive Sept. 9 and died Nov. 17 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,103rd death is a 73-year-old Columbia County woman who tested positive Oct. 26 and died Nov. 16 at Legacy Good Samaritan Medical Center.

The 5,104th death is a 79-year-old Clackamas County man who died Sept. 2 at his residence.

Oregon’s 5,105th death is a 48-year-old Clackamas County woman who died Sept. 11 at her residence.

The 5,106th death is an 88-year-old Clackamas County man who died Nov. 20, 2020, at his residence.

Oregon’s 5,107th death is a 67-year-old Tillamook County woman who tested positive Oct. 10 and died Oct. 17; location of death is being confirmed.

The 5,108th death is a 76-year-old Tillamook County woman who tested positive Sept. 20 and died Nov. 5 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,109th death is a 67-year-old Marion County woman who tested positive Nov. 16 and died Nov. 15 at her residence.

The 5,110th death is an 81-year-old Klamath County man who tested positive Nov. 12 and died Nov. 21 at Sky Lakes Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,111th death is a 61-year-old Josephine County man who died Aug. 20 at his residence.

The 5,112th death is a 56-year-old Josephine County woman who died Aug. 23 at her residence.

Oregon’s 5,113th death is a 74-year-old Josephine County man who died Aug. 24 at his residence.

The 5,114th death is a 58-year-old Jackson County man who tested positive Nov. 22 and died Nov. 23 at Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center.

Oregon’s 5,115th death is an 89-year-old Wasco County woman who died Dec. 30, 2020, at her residence.

The 5,116th death is a 98-year-old Umatilla County man who tested positive Nov. 10 and died Nov. 18. The state was still figuring out where the person died.

Unless otherwise noted, all had underlying medical conditions, or the state was confirming whether they did.

Hospitalizations: 391 people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 are hospitalized, down 13 from Tuesday. That includes 97 people in intensive care, up five from Tuesday.

Vaccines: 5,281 people have been reported newly vaccinated since Tuesday.

Since it began: Oregon has reported 387,485 confirmed or presumed infections and 5,116 deaths, among the lowest per capita numbers in the nation. To date, the state has reported 6,007,214 vaccine doses administered, fully vaccinating 2,650,699 people and partially vaccinating 280,192 people.

To see more data and trends, visit https://projects.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/

— Fedor Zarkhin

fzarkhin@oregonian.com; 503-294-7674

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